Why Are Freight Rates Rising Faster Than Usual?
Traffic at Gdynia terminals isn't slowing down, but costs are rising at a pace we haven't seen in years. Since September 2024, we've observed changes that directly hit the wallets of Polish importers and exporters. Facts matter: rates for a 40-foot container on Asian routes jumped by 1420 USD in just 19 weeks, forcing a total change in cargo booking strategy.
Blockades and Detours Around Africa
The situation in the Red Sea forces shipowners to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, which has completely disrupted previous schedules. This adds an average of 13 days to each voyage from Shanghai to Gdansk or Gdynia, translating into real delays in component deliveries to Polish factories. Ships burn 24% more fuel on this route, and these costs are immediately passed on to customers in the form of fuel surcharges. In December 2024, we analyzed our clients' invoices where the bunker surcharge alone was 315 USD per unit, which at a scale of 47 containers per month generates huge cost overflows.
Empty containers are also lacking at key transshipment hubs because equipment gets stuck at sea instead of circulating. Instead of returning to Asia in 35 days, a typical container box is unavailable for 48 days, creating an artificial deficit in the primary market. This causes congestion in ports like Hamburg or Rotterdam, and Gdynia gets hit as a byproduct. We feel this as delays in general cargo deliveries, which now average 8 business days compared to the plan. Frankly, this situation will not improve until the Suez Canal is fully cleared for safe navigation for all classes of ships.
Ships burn 24% more fuel, which shipowners immediately pass on to customers in the form of fuel surcharges.
Local Congestion at the Gdynia Quay
Our daily quayside practice shows that the problem is not only global politics but also the capacity of local infrastructure. Gdynia terminals are currently working at 92% of their operational capabilities, leaving no margin for weather errors or crane failures. When two large container ships are late by 34 hours due to a storm on the Baltic, the entire weekly schedule collapses rapidly. In October, we saw a situation where 14 freight trains waited on sidings because the unloading of one ship was extended by a full shift due to an IT system failure.
Laytime costs, i.e., demurrage and detention, increased by 17% compared to May 2024, as shipowners seek additional revenue. Shipowners are massively shortening free time from 7 days to just 4 days, which is very difficult to oversee during complex customs clearances. For a medium-sized company from Pomerania that imports 3-4 containers a month, this means an additional expense of around 2300 PLN with every administrative slip. Hard charter terms leave no room for documentation errors, as several of our new contractors painfully found out last quarter.
How to Negotiate During Price Hikes?
Without unnecessary talk: the era of stable 12-month freight contracts has gone into the bin at least until the end of 2025. Currently, most shipowners and forwarders propose rates valid only for 14 or a maximum of 21 days, requiring high alertness from logistics departments. To keep margins at a sensible level, you must book space on the ship at least 5 weeks in advance, which we call 'advance planning' at Gdynia Maritime Dialogue. In November, we helped a furniture company that, thanks to a quick booking decision, saved 840 USD on one transport from Ningbo port.
It's also worth checking alternative entry ports instead of insisting on only one solution that is currently overloaded. Sometimes unloading at the Slovenian port of Koper and land transport to southern Poland comes out 310 EUR cheaper than pushing goods through crowded northern ports, including Hamburg. Every ton of cargo must be calculated twice regarding the fuel costs of road carriers, which are also not stable. In December 2024, the difference in the cost of delivering a container from Gdynia to central Poland rose by 128 PLN on a single run (to be honest, some carriers also add empty run fees).
The era of stable 12-month contracts has gone into the bin at least until the end of 2025.
Impact of New ETS Environmental Fees
From January 2024, the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) covered the maritime sector, becoming another pretext for raising base rates. Shipowners must now pay for every ton of CO2 emitted during voyages to and from EU ports, which translates to about 48 EUR of additional cost per 20-foot container. In 2025, this coefficient will rise to 68.6% of emission responsibility, which according to our calculations will add another 22-26 USD to every freight invoice. This is a fixed cost that cannot be negotiated, but it can be optimized by choosing modern vessels with lower fuel consumption.
Many companies still do not understand how these fees are calculated and why they appear as separate items on forwarder invoices. Our team at Gdynia Maritime Dialogue verified 83 container accounting notes in the last six months, and in 12 cases, we found errors in calculating environmental surcharges to the client's disadvantage. Precise checking of these small amounts allows for real savings, especially when a company operates on low trade margins. (By the way, most shipowners use their own emission calculators, which are rarely fully transparent to the end recipient).
Forecasts for Spring 2025
We do not expect a return to mid-2023 rates, as the maritime market has entered a phase of permanent operational volatility. Data from the last 7 months that we collect in our database suggest that March 2025 will bring another rate correction of about 6-7% upward. This will be primarily influenced by Chinese New Year, which traditionally causes rapid warehouse clearing in Asia and a fight for every free space on ships. We recommend our clients close March bookings before February 15th to avoid the most aggressive PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) increases.
Key for the local market will be the completion of modernization work at the Indian Quay in Gdynia, planned for around March 18, 2025. This should increase transshipment fluidity and potentially lower storage costs, relieving local entrepreneurs by a few percentage points on a monthly scale. Until then, we recommend sticking to short, concrete arrangements with logisticians and avoiding long-term volume declarations that may become a burden in case of a sudden demand drop in Europe. Facts and quick reactions to price list changes, which can change from day to day, are what matter.
We recommend closing March bookings before February 15th to avoid PSS hikes.
